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Lindley's paradox : ウィキペディア英語版
Lindley's paradox
Lindley's paradox is a counterintuitive situation in statistics in which the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to a hypothesis testing problem give different results for certain choices of the prior distribution. The problem of the disagreement between the two approaches was discussed in Harold Jeffreys' 1939 textbook; it became known as Lindley's paradox after Dennis Lindley called the disagreement a paradox in a 1957 paper.
Although referred to as a ''paradox'', the differing results from the Bayesian and frequentist approaches can be explained as using them to answer fundamentally different questions, rather than actual disagreement between the two methods.
==Description of the paradox==
Consider the result \textstyle x of some experiment, with two possible explanations, hypotheses \textstyle H_0 and \textstyle H_1, and some prior distribution \textstyle \pi representing uncertainty as to which hypothesis is more accurate before taking into account \textstyle x.
Lindley's paradox occurs when
# The result \textstyle x is "significant" by a frequentist test of \textstyle H_0, indicating sufficient evidence to reject \textstyle H_0, say, at the 5% level, and
# The posterior probability of \textstyle H_0 given \textstyle x is high, indicating strong evidence that \textstyle H_0 is in better agreement with \textstyle x than \textstyle H_1.
These results can occur at the same time when \textstyle H_0 is very specific, \textstyle H_1 more diffuse, and the prior distribution does not strongly favor one or the other, as seen below.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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